McKinsey raises 2030 semiconductor forecast 44% to $2.3 trillion

McKinsey has raised its baseline forecast for the global semiconductor market in 2030 from $1.6 trillion to $2.3 trillion, an increase of about 44%, according to a report from Wallstreetcn dated October 2, 2026. The earlier figure dates to the fall of 2025. Over the same period, global wafer shipments are expected to keep growing at roughly 7% a year, essentially unchanged from the previous forecast. The implication, the report says, is that the added market value comes mainly from rising ASPs for advanced-node chips and memory rather than from higher shipment volumes.

AI infrastructure spending is described as the central driver. Five hyperscale cloud providers plan combined capital expenditure of about $800 billion in 2026, rising to $1 trillion in 2027, with the bulk going to AI infrastructure, which keeps pushing up demand and prices for advanced-node chips and memory.

The report also notes that year-on-year growth in global semiconductor sales in the first half of 2026 was the highest since the mid-1980s, with July setting a 40-year high, and that global semiconductor market revenue soon afterward crossed $1 trillion for the first time. As of this report, matters rest at McKinsey's publication of the revised forecast; the material does not say whether McKinsey changed its shipment growth outlook, nor does it include any response to the forecast from other institutions.