IDC: 60% of enterprise AI workloads will run on open models by 2028

IDC has released its FutureScape 2027 predictions, a set of 250 forecasts spanning 25 research areas. One of the headline calls is that enterprises will run 60% of their AI workloads on open-source models by 2028, using model routing strategies to cut costs and hedge against vendor lock-in. IDC adds that the fastest movers will be the first to resolve agent inference cost overruns.

For Global 2000 (G2000) organizations, IDC projects that by 2029 60% will have AI-first operation across most business processes, up from just 13% today. By 2028, 70% of these large enterprises will have the capability to continuously validate AI agent decisions. G2000 companies that fail to put agent kill switches in place in production environments will face 25% higher liability insurance premiums and double the exposure to material audit findings by 2028. By that year, 75% of G2000 enterprises will also have clauses on the liability of autonomous agent behavior written into their technology supply contracts.

On the employment side, G2000 companies are expected to shift 30% of entry-level and mid-level execution roles toward positions focused on supervising and orchestrating AI agents by 2029. Among midmarket companies with 1,000 to 4,999 employees, about half expect headcount in entry-level roles to grow within the next 18 months. These figures are all forecasts from IDC's FutureScape 2027, and no subsequent developments have been reported yet.