Bernstein: Rubin Ultra optical content per cluster up more than 5x

On November 11, 2026, Bernstein analyst Daniel Zhu published a research note estimating that the optical content opportunity tied to NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip architecture is far larger than previously expected. Citing Coherent's disclosed figure of $15,000 in content value per 100 Tbps of chips, Zhu calculated that a single 8-rack Rubin Ultra compute cluster (Pod) represents roughly $5.4 million in optical content opportunity. That is more than five times the roughly $1 million attributed to the earlier Vera Rubin NVL72 architecture.

The note attributes the shift to demand for co-packaged optics (CPO) generated by NVIDIA's upcoming platform, which it expects to push optical communications into a new growth cycle well beyond current market expectations. Drawing on shipment forecasts from Bernstein's Asia semiconductor team (Mark Li), the note estimates Coherent's market opportunity on the NVIDIA Rubin Ultra platform at about $9.4 billion in 2027, expanding to $36.1 billion in 2028. Counting the broader NVIDIA ecosystem, the total optical market could approach $47 billion in 2028, representing 91% year-on-year growth.

Bernstein accordingly maintains its outperform ratings on Lumentum, Coherent and Ciena, and its market-perform rating on Corning. Lumentum's price target was raised to $700 to reflect Marvell's latest share price, while the targets for Coherent, Ciena and Corning were left unchanged at $350, $440 and the previously stated level, respectively. The company estimates and ratings stand as published, with no public response from the named optical vendors yet reported.