JPMorgan forecasts 300k-400k humanoid robots built annually in US by 2030

On November 12, 2026, IT Home cited a Reuters report from the same day that laid out JPMorgan's latest forecast for the humanoid robot industry. The bank projected that annual U.S. humanoid robot output will reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and grow further to roughly 1.5 million units by 2035, as the sector moves from technology showcases to commercial deployment.

The report attributes the projected growth to labor shortages, declining usage costs, and expanding production capacity, all of which are pushing manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing firms to adopt humanoid robots in place of repetitive manual work. JPMorgan estimates that the operating cost of humanoid robots has already become close to that of human labor, and if robots are scheduled for multiple shifts, each customer could save about $100,000 per year. In the short term, however, the industry remains constrained by supply capability, with dexterous hands, actuators, robot "brains," and production capacity serving as the main bottlenecks, alongside limits in hardware, AI training data, and compute. Outside of Tesla, most U.S. manufacturers have set annual production targets of only 10,000 to 30,000 units.

On the investment side, JPMorgan sees component suppliers as better positioned than full-system makers over the near term, forecasting that the market for core components such as actuators, motors, and vision systems will approach $30 billion by 2035. Among robot makers, the report highlights Tesla's Optimus and Agility's product efforts. The industry currently remains in an early commercial stage, with capacity and key hardware supply viewed as the decisive factors for how quickly production scales up.