AI-driven memory prices push global PC shipments down over 20% in Q3

Global PC shipments fell sharply in the third quarter of 2026, with Omdia and IDC reporting the same direction but different figures. Omdia put worldwide shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations at 58.1 million units, down 21.2% year over year. IDC's preliminary estimate was a 20.1% decline to 62.7 million units. IDC's traditional PC category covers desktops, notebooks and professional workstations, excluding tablets and x86-based servers.

Both firms traced the drop to AI demand. AI data centers kept pulling on memory supply, driving memory and SSD prices sharply higher and leaving supply tight, which pushed up retail prices and discouraged both consumer and business purchases. Omdia said memory and SSD costs now account for nearly 40% of total PC component costs, up from roughly 15% before, and that prices had risen more than fourfold. Shortages of processors, graphics cards and other parts added to manufacturers' difficulties.

On a sequential basis, IDC said Q3 shipments fell 9.1% from Q2, breaking the usual back-to-school seasonal pattern, and marked a second consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline after a 3.8% drop in Q2. IDC analysts said vendors and channel partners had pulled forward purchases in the first half of the year to get ahead of expected memory and component price increases, borrowing demand from later periods.

Major vendors all felt the pressure. Lenovo shipped 14.9 million units, down 22.6%, and held on to the top spot with a 23.8% share. HP shipped 10.3 million units; Omdia described a decline of nearly 31%, while IDC put it at 30.9%, the steepest drop among the leading vendors, with HP's share falling to 16.5% from 19.1% a year earlier. Dell shipped 7.6 million units, down 25.0%. Apple fell 11.3% and Asus 8.6%, leaving Apple relatively less affected.

Looking ahead, Omdia expects Q4 shipments to fall another 24% year over year, with a further 7% decline across 2027. IDC analysts expect channel inventory pressure to produce short-term promotions, with retailers offering modest discounts to attract buyers, though those promotional prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels.