Goldman Sachs expects AI data center investment to peak in Q4

On October 27, 2026, Fortune reported that Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius had argued that AI's contribution to U.S. economic growth was close to peaking, flagging two major downside risks. Apollo's Torsten Slok took a harder line the same day, saying that outside Big Tech the financial returns from AI were simply not there. Both views point to gains concentrated in a handful of giants.

Also on October 27, a report from Eastmoney carried more detail from Jan Hatzius: hyperscale data center investment in AI was expected to peak within weeks. The share of such investment in the year-over-year change of U.S. GDP was forecast to top out in Q4 2026 at roughly 1.5% of GDP. Capital spending by top hyperscaler operators — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and SpaceX — was expected to reach about $725 billion to $800 billion this year, a 64% increase over 2025. Alphabet and Microsoft were due to report earnings on Wednesday, with Amazon reporting on Thursday, giving investors a look at what comes next.

The same report noted that the AI spending surge was pushing companies to borrow faster. U.S. investment-grade bond issuance was on Monday expected to set an all-time record at $1.76 trillion for the year, surpassing the $1.75 trillion set during the pandemic-driven borrowing boom of 2020, once Monday's deals finished pricing. Analysts had anticipated a record year on the back of AI-related spending, and AI-linked financing in global high-grade markets had already exceeded $300 billion in 2026. As of the latest reporting, the peak-in-Q4 2026 forecast remained the working view.